Impacts of climate change on streamflow in the McKenzie Creek watershed in the Great Lakes region

Introduction: This study explored streamflow dynamics of the McKenzie Creek watershed in Southern Ontario, Canada under a changing climate. The is located southern portion Grand River Great Lakes region and an important water ecosystem service provider for Six Nations reserve, largest (by population) Indigenous community fourth North America. Methods: Coupled Groundwater Surface-Water Flow Model (GSFLOW) was used to simulate from 1951 2020 using observed gridded meteorological data Natural Resources (NRCANmet) situ Environment Climate Change (ECCC). Downscaled Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) two Intergovernmental Panel on (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate warming scenarios, RCP 4.5 8.5 were run GSFLOW historic (1951–2020) projected (2021–2099) period. Results: Results suggested that will be significantly impacted by change winter months when increase due higher temperatures causing early melting snowpack increasing precipitation. Consequently, spring expected decrease little or no summer autumn. These changes may lead more flooding incidents winter, while at same time, face reduced availability dry conditions late warm temperatures. Discussion: provides information about hydrologic this help managers planners better manage resources prepared deal with its impacts security not only area but also Ontario which houses one-third Canada’s population.